VIVAnews - The rupiah exchange rate against US dollar is likely to appreciate by next year to Rp 9,800/USD.
The projected gain would not be however affected by the performance of the rupiah, but the weakening US dollar.
"The US government must take toxin assets," said economic observer Chatib Basri this week.
As for the GDP, he estimated that the figure would be around 5-5.5 percent; inflation rate, 6-7 percent; while three-monthly Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), 7-8 percent.
Compared to the economic downturn suffered by other countries during the global crisis, the growth of Indonesian economy would in fact be slower. It is due to the fact that the Indonesian economy does not actually integrate with the global economy. The exports from Indonesia are still depending on commodities having flat share.
As other crisis-affected countries are under fast recovery from the economic crisis, Indonesia does not grasp the effect. This is apparent for the economic growth in the archipelago is still propped up by consumption instead of investment.
There has been indeed increase in transportation and construction sectors. Nonetheless, imports are not yet significant to make economic rebound.
"That's why I'm positive that the central bank won't cut the benchmark interest rate any further due to the low investment," he said.
Chatib Basri explained that one percent of GDP requires investment growth by four percent. Should the Indonesian government target the economic growth by 14 percent until 2014, 28-30 percent of investment, equal to Rp 3,000 trillion, would be needed, as long as the GDP would reach Rp 10,000 trillion. Today, the GDP rate is only at 25 percent of the GDP.
"Can the investment hit Rp 500 trillion per year? If the government issues policy while direct investment is not around, it will be difficult to comply with Rp 3,000 trillion of investment," he said.
To achieve the seven-percent growth, he suggested that the government modify policies on infrastructure. "Foreign investment must be boosted," he said.
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Translated by: Bonardo Maulana Wahono
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